Monday, November 28, 2016

Go ahead and act like you've received a mandate!

For the majority of Americans who didn't vote for Donald Trump, don't lose hope. Yes, one man can do a lot of damage in four years; but the numbers and history do not favor him being able to make his revolution permanent.

After all, Mr. Trump won less than 47% of the popular vote. Conversely, that means that more than 53% of the American people voted for someone other than him for President. Many Americans seem oblivious to the fact that the popular vote continues to be counted long past election night and the announcement of a winner. In the weeks since the election, Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote has surpassed two million votes (and is likely to grow before the process is finished). Moreover, polling data continues to suggest that Trump has very high unfavorable ratings for a President-elect (that a majority of Americans continue to have a negative impression of him) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

What does all of this mean for a Trump Presidency? The combination of victory, control of both houses of Congress and a monstrous ego are indicative of that age-old nemesis of politicians:  OVERREACH. In short, if Mr. Trump keeps all of his campaign promises and attempts to erase the last eight years, he will almost certainly be a one term president. How do I know that?

How likely do you think it is that the people who have ridiculed and rejected the policies which he espoused during the campaign are going to change their minds about them once they are enacted into law? Do you honestly think that people who have enjoyed more freedom, rights and protections in recent years are going to quietly move to the back of the bus again? Do you really believe that building a wall is going to change the direction that the nation's demographics have been moving for generations is suddenly going to grind to a halt or be reversed? Do you honestly believe that one man (no matter how talented or self-assured) can reverse/halt the march toward globalization and automation in manufacturing? Once again, do you see the rest of the world sitting on their hands and watching that happen?

If we give an honest answer to all of these questions, I believe we must conclude that the numbers and history are not on this man's side. Hence, if he hopes to have any chance at success or to serve more than four years, I humbly suggest that the President-elect not act like he has a mandate. There will be plenty of folks who will be whispering in his ears: "to the victor go the spoils!" BUT I'm also sure there are a great many folks out there who are quietly thinking about an old Clint Eastwood line:  "Go ahead, make my day!"

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